Math is Money and Money is Math

"This ain't smart, dude, this ain't art, dude/This is sonic economics and I'll put it on a graph for you to prove" - Lifter Puller, "Math is Money"

I played the tightest eight hour session that is humanly possible at Caesar's yesterday.

Luckily for me, only two people at the table seemed to be aware of this fact. As a result I was able to make a couple moves on them while only playing premium hands against the rest of the table. The end result was a double of my buy in after having it closer to triple the entire time. Time after time, there would be someone who thought I was making a move on them and we would go heads up, I would value bet the river after inevitably making the nuts or clear and away the best hand and they would make crying calls. As mentioned in my previous post, the players changed but in contrast to that, their styles didn't. They kept coming and I was happy to fold, fold, fold and then make up for my time by pounding someone when I got a hand.

There was, however, one hiccup. The only hand that I lost at showdown the entire day.

And of course this hiccup is the hand that I'll cover here. It is also the one that kept me from walking away with a larger win since I made it the last hand of my day. And here was my first mistake: I had resolved to leave after playing my button but when that hand came I looked down at 6,8 off in an unopened pot and decided to limp in, thereby breaking trend with not only how I had played all day but my own philosophy not to play hands for $2 that I wouldn't play for $25. No one raises and the flop comes 8, 8, 5, two spades. Dude from early position bets out $10, mass folding ensues and Svetlana from Brooklyn calls the $10. Now Svetlana happens to be one of the two players at the table who has been aware of my snug play, showing me when she laid down a middle A on an A high flop a couple hours earlier when I raised her. She also is the only person at the table who has me outchipped, as she has about 1k in front of her. So it's action to me with about $30-$34 in the pot at the moment. I raise to $35. Both players call.

After the double call, the turn brings a 10, making the board 8,8,5,10. Early position guy again leads out, this time for $35. Now, this was a guy obviously new to poker, as he had consistently been looking to the dealer for assistance and been confused by raises and so on. So he bets and Svetlana calls, and under her breath I hear her say "This hand is really confusing." At this point I am 95% sure that she also has an 8. She was a good enough player to know that I wouldn't have raised without an 8 and wouldn't have raised with 5,5 if I had a boat on the flop. So if she is confused, it is because she has the case 8 and can't figure out why the other guy is still in the hand. She also has tipped that she didn't have 5,5 because if she did she wouldn't have been confused, as she would have suspected that both I and the other guy had an 8 in our hands. And she wouldn't have been concerned, which she obviously was.

It's at this point that I began to think that I was about to lose a big pot.

But I called anyway. Thinking I'm beat and with the math not supporting even a $35 call (slightly over 5 to 1 and me looking at a 3 outer if I'm outkicked and likely drawing dead if either of them happens to have 10,10, unless the case 8 somehow is still in the deck) I just couldn't get away. Perhaps it was the combination of it being my last hand of the day, the fact that I was tired and hungry or maybe I am just that guy who will pay you off.

River brings a 4, making the flush, albeit on a paired board. Guy from early position goes all in for his last $64 into a pot of about $210. Svetlana scopes me out and I can tell she's not happy with her middle spot in this pot and by the play of the early position guy and by the fact that I have shown the nuts probably five times in showdowns in the last eight hours. She makes the call and it's on to me and I take my time to review everything I can remember. When I do so, it looks more like the early position guy was probably misplaying a big pair the entire time, probably not aces or kings but maybe queens. Svetlana has the case 8 but she looks pretty nervous. Could she have a worse kicker than a 6 (and with a 4 and a 5 on board, only a 2 or a 3 can I beat). Unlikely.

And then I do the math.

$340 in the pot, $64 to call. I cut the $64 out of my stack and put it in.

Math is money, and money is math.

Swine Flu Poker

Ah, the swine flu. Like West Nile, bird flu and SARS before it, it is likely to be the end of us all. And no better place to meet up with it than a dirty poker room. Fever, headache, nausea, general discomfort. It all sounds familiar in the poker world.

What does the flu have to do with the felt? Mutation of course. Like any strain of the flu, a poker game mutates as it meets resistance. Plays that work for a few orbits become less successful as the game extends with the same cast of players. Check-raise early and watch your victim absorb the blow and then unleash it on you an hour or two later. Similarly, when a game goes from full to short-handed or vice versa, everything changes. I have been having some difficulty adapting to this back and forth dynamic and keeping my game in order, particularly from short-handed to full. I feel pretty good in six and seven handed tables these days but when it fills back up to ten, I have been making some boneheaded plays. In analyzing where exactly my problems begin, I think that I need more work on the dynamic of pots with more than three people in them. These pots are more likely to be raised, bluffed at, shoved, sometimes all in the same hand. Recognizing this fact, I realize I need to really focus on preflop reads so that I am better prepared when I find myself in such situations. One perfect example was when I came into a pot with a raise with 8,8 and we went to the flop with 5 players, me in middle position of the five. Two overs came and after checked to me, I followed suit when I should have fired out. The check held and from there the pot went downhill for me when an ace turned, while simultaneously turning my stomach. By freezing on the flop without good reads to fall back upon, I ultimately cost myself any chance of winning it.This example is a primary sticking point in where I'm at right now in my cash game, which is to say, improving but not fully there. I think I have a solid feel for how I play and with that understanding I think that it's time to mutate it a bit.

Excuse me now as I go wash the stench of that ill-played non-attempt off of my hands.

Cash games

I've been active in cash games lately and running fairly well. Let me throw an interesting hand from last night's $1/2 NL game at you all and I'd be interested to hear how you think I played it (or should have played). For the most part I play pretty tight, so factor that in for what it may be worth. The hand starts with me having about $300 and both the guys in the hand having me covered by a good amount.

I hold J,10 and call a standard raise to $6 from the cut off. 5 players in, I've got position on everyone. Flop comes K, 9, 7, giving me the double belly buster draw. The beauty of this is how hidden it is on that board. A lot of people will rightfully only consider the cards that make a straight work with the 7 and 9 as scare cards come the turn, so I like my spot here should the high end hit. So check, check, someone bets out to $8, guy to my right calls. While I'm contemplating my move, guy two to my left accidentally raises out of turn to $25 (after checking from the SB). Being a friendly enough game, he is allowed to draw it back in. At this point, I just call the $8, which makes everyone laugh and throws him off. "You knew I was planning to raise and you flat call anyway?" The reality was that I was cutting my chips for the call and missed his accidental action altogether but he didn't realize it. He thinks it over and finally just calls. Other hand mucks. 4 ways to the turn. Q ball hits. Board now K, 9, 7, Q and I have the nuts (2 flush cards on board) and because of the accidental action on the flop, my resulting bizarre play and the inside nature of my made hand, no one has me on it, of that I'm positive. Check, check to me. I bet out $40 and guy who tried to raise out of turn calls and guy to my right also calls. River brings another Q but the flush misses. Board is K, 9, 7, Q, Q. Inadvertent raiser bets $65, guy to my right folds.

What do I do?