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Jason Love, that is. He's a 6'10" center for Xavier, and in my opinion, the key to tonight's Xavier/UCLA Regional Final game. His role will be to try and provide quality minutes to slow down his UCLA namesake, Kevin Love and K. Love's awful beard. J. Love is capable of doing it and I expect him to come out with a high level of intensity, however he is foul prone so he needs to keep his aggression controlled because I fully expect K. Love to get any and all calls when there is physical play down low.
I think this one is going to be interesting. Xavier has shown a resilience that belies a veteran senior and junior-laden team, overcoming a big deficit against Georgia, showing poise against Purdue and never panicking against W. Virginia after losing a big lead and falling behind by 6 in overtime. UCLA, other than its 16/1 first round matchup, has shown alarming lapses in play. Its defense has been extraordinary in 5 of its 6 halves though and this is the key to the game, Xavier's offensive execution against UCLA's stifling defense. As I wrote a couple of days ago, Xavier has very balanced scoring and they will need contributions from a lot of players to overcome the Bruins.
My pick? Xavier does it, 65-60.
As for UNC/Louisville, this game can and will end one of two ways: a UNC win 100-80 or a game that comes down to the last shot for Louisville. If Louisville's press doesn't cause the kind of turnovers that Clemson was mostly successful with in their games against UNC, the Heels will win and win big. If they can get the cheap turnovers and capitalize on them, it will be interesting. My one guarantee for this game is that Padgett, Caracter and Palacios for UL will combine for at least 13 fouls. I expect the national POY to get to the line about 10-12 times in this one.
The pick, as much as I don't like to do it, is UNC. I will still root for UL though.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
Hoops Friday
Picked the four winners correctly yesterday, went even against the spread as I thought the UNC game would be tighter and UCLA never put away WKU. I'm happy with my analysis of the other two games though, as Josh Duncan showed up big time as I predicted and Tennessee's apathetic, sloppy play was punished by an interesting Louisville team. Interesting because they have size and athleticism but their play was ragged. I think Pitino is one of the great college coaches and if he can have them focused and tight against UNC it could be a very interesting game.
As for today's games, I like Stanford over Texas, Memphis over Michigan State, Wisconsin over Davidson and Kansas over Villanova.
As for today's games, I like Stanford over Texas, Memphis over Michigan State, Wisconsin over Davidson and Kansas over Villanova.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Sweet Sixteen
Ah, Sweet Sixteen. It brings back the memories of overdone, overwrought parties filled with anxious adolescents seeking that elusive teenage liberation. It recalls memories of a John Hughes movies jammed with longing, lust, angst, wild keggers and Long Duck Dong. (As an aside, has any lead in a teen comedy been more of a washout than Jake Ryan? He dumps his hot girlfriend, misses the best party of the year, at his own house no less, while he's upstairs looking through his yearbook, then spends Saturday outside the church on the off chance that he can make out with Molly Ringwald. What a waste.) It also brings to mind the crucial round of the NCAA basketball tournament. By now, most of the pretenders have been sent packing, along with the hopefuls and you're left with the teams that have a legitimate chance. At this point anyone can reel off 2 wins to reach the final four and 4 wins to the championship is not an unreasonable thought for any of them. Here are my picks for Thursday's matchups (and I'll stick with the John Hughes/Sixteen Candles theme):
North Carolina -8.5 against Washington State. This matchup is Jake Ryan's girlfriend Caroline, the hottest girl in school, against Samantha Baker (Molly Ringwald). On the surface it's a no-brainer, Caroline is the party-hungry prom queen who looks about 25, but if you remember, Molly Ringwald sneaks in and steals Jake while Caroline is busy partying. She lost focus. Carolina better not do the same. I think they'll recover from WSU's mind-numbing tempo in time and squeak out a victory, provided that they don't simply try to outscore WSU and actually put forth a semblance of a defensive effort. If they come to play on the defensive end, WSU will end up like Sam Baker in the locker room, wrapped in a towel and staring in envy.
Louisville -3 against Tennessee. The line tells you everything you need to know about this one. It's Anthony Michael Hall against Jake Ryan. One is the higher seed who peaked prior to everything getting started and has been looking sluggish throughout. The other has everything going for it at the moment and is trying to make big things happen. I like Louisville to wake up the next morning in a Rolls Royce in the parking lot with the prom queen.
Xavier +1 against W. Virginia. This is a little more interesting and you have to really look to find the right comparison, but eventually you realize that it is Bryce against Cliff, the two geek brothers who are Anthony Michael Hall's best friends. In the movie Cliff is the more confident of the two and seems to be the leader but in the long run you realize that it is Bryce, played by John Cusack, who had the staying power. W. Virginia is the sexier pick with Huggins, Joe Alexander and an upset win over Duke but I think Xavier, who has a better 6'9" inside outside player in Josh Duncan and tremendous offensive balance, will use its depth to its advantage and be standing at the end. Look for Xavier's stellar FT shooting to be the difference in the endgame.
UCLA -12.5 against W. Kentucky. This looks to be the least competitive game of the day, both in reality and spread-wise. I liken it to Joan Cusack vs. the water fountain. Joan Cusack eventually wins an ugly, comic battle and you feel a little guilty for laughing but you do anyway. UCLA advances.
North Carolina -8.5 against Washington State. This matchup is Jake Ryan's girlfriend Caroline, the hottest girl in school, against Samantha Baker (Molly Ringwald). On the surface it's a no-brainer, Caroline is the party-hungry prom queen who looks about 25, but if you remember, Molly Ringwald sneaks in and steals Jake while Caroline is busy partying. She lost focus. Carolina better not do the same. I think they'll recover from WSU's mind-numbing tempo in time and squeak out a victory, provided that they don't simply try to outscore WSU and actually put forth a semblance of a defensive effort. If they come to play on the defensive end, WSU will end up like Sam Baker in the locker room, wrapped in a towel and staring in envy.
Louisville -3 against Tennessee. The line tells you everything you need to know about this one. It's Anthony Michael Hall against Jake Ryan. One is the higher seed who peaked prior to everything getting started and has been looking sluggish throughout. The other has everything going for it at the moment and is trying to make big things happen. I like Louisville to wake up the next morning in a Rolls Royce in the parking lot with the prom queen.
Xavier +1 against W. Virginia. This is a little more interesting and you have to really look to find the right comparison, but eventually you realize that it is Bryce against Cliff, the two geek brothers who are Anthony Michael Hall's best friends. In the movie Cliff is the more confident of the two and seems to be the leader but in the long run you realize that it is Bryce, played by John Cusack, who had the staying power. W. Virginia is the sexier pick with Huggins, Joe Alexander and an upset win over Duke but I think Xavier, who has a better 6'9" inside outside player in Josh Duncan and tremendous offensive balance, will use its depth to its advantage and be standing at the end. Look for Xavier's stellar FT shooting to be the difference in the endgame.
UCLA -12.5 against W. Kentucky. This looks to be the least competitive game of the day, both in reality and spread-wise. I liken it to Joan Cusack vs. the water fountain. Joan Cusack eventually wins an ugly, comic battle and you feel a little guilty for laughing but you do anyway. UCLA advances.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
the Beats go on
The bad beat has been hovering all around me the past couple of weeks, not in the lowercase sense (i.e. "Holy crap, that was a bad beat") but rather in a bigger sense. A Bad Beat way, jackpot included.
Two weeks ago Caesars in AC had just paid off a table to the tune of 27k when someone's quad 6s got snuffed by a straight flush. Then, last Friday, halfway through my basketball/poker session, the excited voices rose to a new decibel and then exploded. Turns out that quad 7s were way ahead of trip Qs (or Queens full of 7s actually) until the river when the final lady showed up to the party and netted the loser a cool 20k. The winner pocketed 10k and the other 8 players split about 10k.
These Beats always lead to a discussion among players and dealers on the appropriate amounts to kick back to the dealer. In the latter instance above, the kid threw back a grand to the dealer, even though his buddies were telling him to tip half that amount. Personally, I think it is up to the discretion of the player, each case is different, each dealer is different, the player's personal circumstances might dictate a little more or a little less. Everyone has a different opinion.
Either way, it's a dilemma that I hope to be able to write about in a practical sense at some point in the future.
Two weeks ago Caesars in AC had just paid off a table to the tune of 27k when someone's quad 6s got snuffed by a straight flush. Then, last Friday, halfway through my basketball/poker session, the excited voices rose to a new decibel and then exploded. Turns out that quad 7s were way ahead of trip Qs (or Queens full of 7s actually) until the river when the final lady showed up to the party and netted the loser a cool 20k. The winner pocketed 10k and the other 8 players split about 10k.
These Beats always lead to a discussion among players and dealers on the appropriate amounts to kick back to the dealer. In the latter instance above, the kid threw back a grand to the dealer, even though his buddies were telling him to tip half that amount. Personally, I think it is up to the discretion of the player, each case is different, each dealer is different, the player's personal circumstances might dictate a little more or a little less. Everyone has a different opinion.
Either way, it's a dilemma that I hope to be able to write about in a practical sense at some point in the future.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Basketball and Poker
Went back to Atlantic City last Friday in order to play poker and watch basketball simultaneously. Caesar's was my poker room of choice, they have a lot of games going, the televisions are nicely placed in height and distance from the tables, the room is a little bit wilder than the average and you get the feeling that patient play might get handsomely rewarded.
Of course, that really didn't apply to me on Friday since all I really wanted to do was watch hoops. The poker was really a secondary measure to being surrounded by the college action. As a result, I chose a brand new 2-4 limit table and grabbed the 10 seat, where I could easily monitor three televisions as well as the cards being felted. My favorite game of the day was obviously Drake/W. Kentucky, it was one of the classic NCAA games that you'll see THE clip from for the next 20 years, and well-deservedly so. The kicker of that game is that the W. Kentucky guard who receives the inbounds pass and rushes the ball upcourt had more than 30 points and I along with everyone else was certain he was going to fire the final shot. Not so. He kicked it back for a 28 footer, the buzzer went off with the ball in midair, it found the nylon and W. Kentucky moved on. Just a great game.
What was not a great game was my 2-4 limit game. It was the exact opposite, in fact. NFHE was in full effect and in three hours I had some dream starting hands (aces, kings, queens twice) all lose as there was simply no way to get anyone off hands. And I don't mean draws, I mean hands, period. Like Jack/Deuce offsuit. Or 3,9. Soon enough, between the basketball and the best-hand-always-wins mentality of the table, I was down a decent chunk of money. But, luckily for me, there were more games on the tube. I settled in and sure enough, all that loose play sent my money right back to me over the next few hours during the late games. All in all, I think I ended up clearing a couple bucks and having a great day watching games, which was my intention for the day anyway.
Of course, that really didn't apply to me on Friday since all I really wanted to do was watch hoops. The poker was really a secondary measure to being surrounded by the college action. As a result, I chose a brand new 2-4 limit table and grabbed the 10 seat, where I could easily monitor three televisions as well as the cards being felted. My favorite game of the day was obviously Drake/W. Kentucky, it was one of the classic NCAA games that you'll see THE clip from for the next 20 years, and well-deservedly so. The kicker of that game is that the W. Kentucky guard who receives the inbounds pass and rushes the ball upcourt had more than 30 points and I along with everyone else was certain he was going to fire the final shot. Not so. He kicked it back for a 28 footer, the buzzer went off with the ball in midair, it found the nylon and W. Kentucky moved on. Just a great game.
What was not a great game was my 2-4 limit game. It was the exact opposite, in fact. NFHE was in full effect and in three hours I had some dream starting hands (aces, kings, queens twice) all lose as there was simply no way to get anyone off hands. And I don't mean draws, I mean hands, period. Like Jack/Deuce offsuit. Or 3,9. Soon enough, between the basketball and the best-hand-always-wins mentality of the table, I was down a decent chunk of money. But, luckily for me, there were more games on the tube. I settled in and sure enough, all that loose play sent my money right back to me over the next few hours during the late games. All in all, I think I ended up clearing a couple bucks and having a great day watching games, which was my intention for the day anyway.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Shaking off the Rust (in a mostly unsuccessful way)
Lessons learned. I'm good at remembering them but often learn them through trial and error rather than a more abstract approach, like watching someone else fail.
I’ve been getting in more play recently, after a few months of nothing and my inactivity has showed, as my play has been erratic and my decisions questionable. As always, I try to take away something from each game and making mistakes, in some cases huge blunders, always sears those scenarios into my head for future reference.
A few games and hands worthy of mention because they feature a couple of mistakes I made, one because I didn’t consider all the options and one because I did:
I played in a home game a few weeks back, 1-2 NL, $300 min buy in, rotating two rounds of NLHE with one round of Pot Limit Omaha. I tried to play tight/aggressive but in retrospect I played mostly tight, content to take down pots when ahead instead of milking them. Until the following boneheaded play, that is.
Hovering around even, I folded A,7 o/s in the face of a raise and a call and watched as the other three aces hit on the flop and turn. The pot was small as the two remaining players tread cautiously (pocket Js and suited connectors I believe) but my tightness cost me money and left me watching from the side. The very next hand, however, I pick up As9s and call a preflop raise. The flop comes 10,9,4 rainbow and I bet out and the preflop raiser comes over the top with another raise. Red flag, right? Right? Well, unfortunately my flagman had taken a coffee break. I call. The turn brought another nine, giving me a set and I make the worst possible play and move all in. In this instance I can only be called by hands that have me crushed. Everything else will fold under this bet and I will not make any additional money. Of course I am immediately called and he turns over pocket 10s for the top full house. Just an awful play on my part. I never thought about the bet, didn’t take the extra ten or fifteen seconds to think about the scenarios in which I could most make or most lose my money, just fired blindly. Attribute it to rust, poor decision-making or just stupidity, any way I slice it it is still an awful play. Lesson learned. Think.
The second hand that I want to recount was in Atlantic City. Got into a 1-2 NLHE game at the Tropicana with $300 and again was hovering around even but this time feeling pretty good about my play. I had lost a couple races against smaller all-in stacks where my hands and the pots dictated calls but then won it back by opening up a little and catching some big hands when I got in the mix with lower connectors and made good value bets. The hand that was the crucial one of the day unsurprisingly was when I looked down at pocket aces from the big blind. It was folded around to the old guy directly across from me who made it $22 to go and everyone folded to me. I popped it to $60 and he made a quick call, no hesitation. He was tight and I put him on a big pair. Flop comes J,7,2 rainbow and I led out for $50. He immediately goes all in and I go into the tank. I stare at him, which elicits some joking comments from the table but they give me the time to make my decision. I ask him if he has pocket jacks and he tells me that he will show me if I fold. I tell him that if I fold, I don’t want to see what he has. I’m 80% sure he has the jacks. He’s got me covered, it’s another (roughly) $190 to call into the pot, which is now at around $410 and ultimately, this is what did me in, that I figured I was getting better than 2 to 1 on my call and that I’ve got the edge on any hand he can probably be playing other than pocket jacks. And ultimately, I should have listened to my instincts because I called and he showed the pocket jacks and I didn’t catch my two outer. Again, lesson learned. Think, but trust instinct.
The one thing both of these cases had in common that I seem to have ignored is the strength of the hands my opponent was holding and telling me that they held, by the post-flop reraises. I got married to both hands and couldn't get away, wanting to believe that I was ahead and talking myself into it. But talking myself into it is not the same as actually being ahead, and I plunged ahead with my losing hands, instead of seeking a divorce, ended up busted.
(Well, only kind of, actually. As a postscript to both of these stories, I rebought and began grinding and ended up nullifying my losses by more than half. Not how I envisioned the two sessions but still better than a total washout.)
I’ve been getting in more play recently, after a few months of nothing and my inactivity has showed, as my play has been erratic and my decisions questionable. As always, I try to take away something from each game and making mistakes, in some cases huge blunders, always sears those scenarios into my head for future reference.
A few games and hands worthy of mention because they feature a couple of mistakes I made, one because I didn’t consider all the options and one because I did:
I played in a home game a few weeks back, 1-2 NL, $300 min buy in, rotating two rounds of NLHE with one round of Pot Limit Omaha. I tried to play tight/aggressive but in retrospect I played mostly tight, content to take down pots when ahead instead of milking them. Until the following boneheaded play, that is.
Hovering around even, I folded A,7 o/s in the face of a raise and a call and watched as the other three aces hit on the flop and turn. The pot was small as the two remaining players tread cautiously (pocket Js and suited connectors I believe) but my tightness cost me money and left me watching from the side. The very next hand, however, I pick up As9s and call a preflop raise. The flop comes 10,9,4 rainbow and I bet out and the preflop raiser comes over the top with another raise. Red flag, right? Right? Well, unfortunately my flagman had taken a coffee break. I call. The turn brought another nine, giving me a set and I make the worst possible play and move all in. In this instance I can only be called by hands that have me crushed. Everything else will fold under this bet and I will not make any additional money. Of course I am immediately called and he turns over pocket 10s for the top full house. Just an awful play on my part. I never thought about the bet, didn’t take the extra ten or fifteen seconds to think about the scenarios in which I could most make or most lose my money, just fired blindly. Attribute it to rust, poor decision-making or just stupidity, any way I slice it it is still an awful play. Lesson learned. Think.
The second hand that I want to recount was in Atlantic City. Got into a 1-2 NLHE game at the Tropicana with $300 and again was hovering around even but this time feeling pretty good about my play. I had lost a couple races against smaller all-in stacks where my hands and the pots dictated calls but then won it back by opening up a little and catching some big hands when I got in the mix with lower connectors and made good value bets. The hand that was the crucial one of the day unsurprisingly was when I looked down at pocket aces from the big blind. It was folded around to the old guy directly across from me who made it $22 to go and everyone folded to me. I popped it to $60 and he made a quick call, no hesitation. He was tight and I put him on a big pair. Flop comes J,7,2 rainbow and I led out for $50. He immediately goes all in and I go into the tank. I stare at him, which elicits some joking comments from the table but they give me the time to make my decision. I ask him if he has pocket jacks and he tells me that he will show me if I fold. I tell him that if I fold, I don’t want to see what he has. I’m 80% sure he has the jacks. He’s got me covered, it’s another (roughly) $190 to call into the pot, which is now at around $410 and ultimately, this is what did me in, that I figured I was getting better than 2 to 1 on my call and that I’ve got the edge on any hand he can probably be playing other than pocket jacks. And ultimately, I should have listened to my instincts because I called and he showed the pocket jacks and I didn’t catch my two outer. Again, lesson learned. Think, but trust instinct.
The one thing both of these cases had in common that I seem to have ignored is the strength of the hands my opponent was holding and telling me that they held, by the post-flop reraises. I got married to both hands and couldn't get away, wanting to believe that I was ahead and talking myself into it. But talking myself into it is not the same as actually being ahead, and I plunged ahead with my losing hands, instead of seeking a divorce, ended up busted.
(Well, only kind of, actually. As a postscript to both of these stories, I rebought and began grinding and ended up nullifying my losses by more than half. Not how I envisioned the two sessions but still better than a total washout.)
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