A Couple Thoughts on the WSOP Circuit Final Table at Harrahs

I was taken aback by the first hand of the Final Table at Harrahs New Orleans in the recent circuit event. Here is how it went down, with my thoughts mixed in. Remember, this is the very first hand of the day:


Chip Leader (687k) raises from the 4 seat to 22k.

2nd in chips (400k) re-raises to 45k from the 6 seat.

4th in chips (300k) smooth calls from the 7 seat.

Let's break that sequence down: Chip leader raises, no big deal. 2nd in chips picks up a hand or wants to send a message, reraises. 4th in chips smooth calls so he must have a monster since the chip leader still has to act behind him on the re-raise. He can't figure he's priced into anything. At this point I would give the credit to the 7 seat, 4th in chips and put him on the biggest hand.

Until...

Chip leader reraises to 120k.

2nd in chips moves in for his 400k.

4th in chips calls for his entire 300k.

Wow. A ton of action. This sequence would tell me that the chip leader has a hand. If it was only 1 reraiser, maybe he comes back over the top with a marginal hand. But a reraiser and a smooth-caller? He must have something. The shove by 2nd in chips tells me he must have aces to have re-raised the initial raiser, been smooth-called and then re-raised again on top of it and still feels like his hand is the best. Aces or perhaps Kings. He was only invested for 45k, he could easily get away from almost anything else. The problem, however, is that I feel the same way about the smooth-caller's call. He must have aces or kings with only 45k invested and all that action in front of him (raise, re-raise, re-raise, all-in). How can he call with anything else? Being priced in is not a factor at this point for either of 2nd or 4th in chips since if they lose, they go out with something like $23,000 for 9th and a little more for 8th and the winner of it all takes $387,000. Only the chip leader can really contemplate that since he has them covered and can still have a good stack to play with. However, even he can still get away as he's in for 120k and there is still another 280k to call and there has already been one caller.

And the kicker.

Chip leader also calls the double all-in. AND he had the A,A. He must have been in shock when these guys started shoving and knowing that he had aces, had them dominated.

2nd stack turns over J,J for, in my opinion, a poor play. Very poor. You've had a raise in front of you, re-raised yourself only to have been called and re-raised (warning flags, anyone????) and you decide to shove for everything when you're only in for 45k and have 400k total??? With J,J???? I hate that play. You have to figure one of them has you. Plus, there is no need to shove at that point. The shows of strength around you are there. If you want to play them, call that re-raise and try to take it away on the flop if anything comes that could be considered a scare card. At that point, a call could mean he had almost any pocket pair that he initially re-raised with and Aces and Kings would be wary of any set.

Similarly, I don't like the play by Q,Q to call the all-in. Yes, it is hard to lay down Q,Q, much harder than J,J. But again, he had not once raised this pot, the other 2 guys each raised twice, doubling and tripling the amount (3x raise, 2x raise, 3x raise, 3x raise) and you're going to call that for everything? Again, only 45k invested at the time the action came back to him where he was put all-in. Have to figure one guy has at least K,K or A,A and another has at worst A,K. Don't like the call at all. Not as bad as the shove with J,J into the pot at the time, but still pretty rough. Just no need to risk it. The risk of all your chips and 9th place prize money (since he was the smaller of the chip stacks that could be eliminated, he would get the lower finishing spot if they were both eliminated) where you could easily be dominated 4 to 1 vs. reward (at best a coin flip for all your chips, where if you win you take the chip lead) doesn't seem to fit to me, not with all the action.

I can only recall seeing one hand like this, in the final table at the USPC at AC one year when one of the local pros (a young Italian-American guy) had a ton of action before him, looked down at Q,Q and folded it in about 1 second and watched the other two turn over A,A and K,K.

So the cards come, the A,A painkillers hold up and 2nd and 4th chip stacks are eliminated on hand 1 of the day.

The only thing I can think is that it being the first hand of the day, no one was in a groove yet or could believe that they were going to get cold-decked right out of the gate.

What a way to start the day though, huh?

One Flies In, One Flies Away

Home tournament again last Friday. Finished 8th, top 5 got paid. I need to do something to step up in this game and cash. I seem to be able to make the final table by playing with selective aggression but never seem to be able to make the plays that will get me to a powerful stack size while there.

A few hands to recap:

4th hand of the tournament, 25/50 (opening stack: 1500). I look down at 8c9c and raise to 150 in middle position, get one caller, then a guy in the small blind reraises to 375. Another 225 into 725(big blind folded) and I make the call and the other caller folds. Pot is now 950 and we're heads up. Flop is a bonanza for me 8,8,3. He leads out for 600 and I reraise all in for another 525. Again, with two rebuys allowed I know he's going to call as there is no benefit to folding and playing short stacked. He even says to me "I have to call you," and I expect he knew he was behind. We flip and he shows K,K no flush draw. Turn is a brick, river brings him another K and fills up his boat. Rough. I would have loved to have been an early chip leader and to start to lean on people and loosen right up.

Rebuy. Get A,8 suited right away and think that I don't like it so much but I have to play it so I raise and sure enough end up losing even more when the flop misses me by a mile and my c-bet gets reraised all in. Now 40% of my second rebuy is gone and I know I have to tighten up and either wait for cards or the right spots to shove over the top. I pull of the latter a couple of times and rake in a few hundred each time, slowly trying to build back up. I give some chips back trying to make something with a pair of threes but then finally wake up to a few hands. I shove with 10,10 and get a call by a guy who didn't want to and his Ace/rag combo goes down. Then I get K,K and unfortunately my raise draws no callers but I pull in the blinds. Then at 200/400 I get A,10 suited, raise it up to 1600, get reraised all in (I'm at 3200), another person on a short stack calls and I realize I'm priced in and with a rebuy in my pocket there is no sense in folding into the big pot and being left with 1600 when I can rebuy for another 1500 so I call. Dominated by A,Q on the big stack and 9,9 on the short one. No flush falls for me and a 9 hits the turn and I bust again.

Rebuy #2. Short stack blinds at 200/400 and about to raise up. I shove almost right away and my A,J suited rivers me a flush to double up. I decide to be patient even though I need to accumulate chips, probably a bad decision, but I was hoping to get some decent cards and lop some chips off the table chip leader who had more than the rest of us combined. Finally after hovering for awhile I reraise all in with J,J and get a call by shortstacked A,9 and the jacks hold up and give me enough chips to not sweat the ever-increasing blinds for a couple rounds, as well as knock out the player that allows us to consolidate to the final table.

Final table. Well, I just played awfully here. I barely made any moves. In fact, I can only remember playing two hands. First, at 300/600 I raised to 2000 with A,Q suited and got no callers, including the big blind who folded 5,5. He had me outchipped by maybe a couple thousand but didn't want to play for most of his stack with that hand. Not sure if I wanted him to either but since the play was aggressive at the table and I was not making moves a race was probably the best I could hope for. Then a few hands later in the small blind at 300/600 I outthought myself and felt the burn of knowing I made an awful play. After three limpers into the pot and with my stack at about 4400, I look at K,5 off. Another 300 to call but the big blind to my left has just used his last rebuy and I feel certain if I limp he will shove for his 1500 and I decide I don't want to play K,5 for 1500 so I fold. Of course, he doesn't shove, only checks his option and the flop comes king high, which ends up would have been the winning hand. Just brutal. The very next hand on the button, I fold J, 8 off under a raise and the flop comes J,8,x and the raiser shoves all in and my burn is gettting worse by the second. So I think you know how this song is going to end. A couple hands later I find K,9 of diamonds, raise it up to 2000, get reraised all in for my last 2400 and after checking the time (blinds went up to 400/800 right after this hand started) decided to make the call. I had had success earlier with King high when going all in, and I generally (not always) would rather do it with a hand like this than with a weak ace but in typical fashion, he flips over the painkillers (A,A). I pick up an inside straight draw (Q) on the flop, a flush draw on the turn but nothing materializes and I'm out again.

I have to mix up my game more and make the necessary adjustments at levels like 100/200 in this game to accumulate chips. Playing back at people in earlier levels with rebuys available usually draws calls and in later levels usually draws shoves. But I am handcuffing myself with tight play in all rounds and need to fix that, and quickly.

I Put $900 On The 5th Horse, In The 6th Race

A little post-Kentucky Derby perspective and analysis. First off, I had keyed Big Brown at the top of my bets. His trainer, Dutrow, often only enters horses he believes will win races. A few years ago he entered a horse called Connie's Magic in two races only three or four days apart at Belmont and won both. So when I heard him talking about all the money their stable was going to be laying on BB, added to his past performances, I was sold.

Unfortunately, I had planned on a quicker pace, something that would benefit the closers and allow them to get up to fill out the exotics. The first quarter of 23 1/5 was nowhere near the speed duels of past years, when either rabbits or overmatched horses figured their only shot was to get out in front and try to hold up. This pace scenario played perfectly into a stalker's situation and Big Brown was properly situated near the lead the entire race and showed himself the best around the turn and down the stretch. Unfortunately for me, the closers that I had filled out underneath Big Brown - Colonel John, Visionaire, Court Vision and Pyro - never got the trip, the ride or the pace they needed and left me with a handful of losing tickets.

Big Brown looks to be for real and I fully expect to see him in person at Belmont gunning for the Triple Crown in June.